The 22-TD QB: Historic Achievement or Statistical Scam?

Quarterback rushing touchdowns have become more common in the modern NFL, thanks to zone-read concepts, spread offenses, and elite dual-threat playmakers. But even with the rise of mobile quarterbacks, the idea of a QB scoring 22 rushing touchdowns in a single season is beyond unheard-of—it is statistically nearly impossible based on the entire history of the league.

To put it bluntly: if a QB ever hit 22 rushing TDs, he wouldn’t just break a record—he would shatter every statistical expectation the position has ever known. Here’s why.

The Historical Context: Quarterbacks Just Don’t Score Like Running Backs

Across NFL history, rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks have been rare outliers rather than consistent production.

Consider the following benchmarks:

• The NFL record for QB rushing TDs in a season is 14 (Cam Newton, 2011).
• Only three quarterbacks in history have ever scored 10+ rushing touchdowns in a season.
• The vast majority of starting QBs average 2–6 rushing TDs per year, even mobile ones.

So when we talk about a QB scoring 22 rushing TDs, we’re not just exceeding the record—we’re almost doubling it.

Statistically speaking, that’s the equivalent of a running back rushing for 35 touchdowns or a receiver scoring 30 receiving touchdowns. It’s not just rare—it’s unprecedented.

Why the Odds Are So Low: Usage, Risk, and NFL Reality

To understand how unlikely 22 QB rushing touchdowns truly is, you have to look at the structural limitations of the position:

1. Quarterbacks Don’t Get Clean Goal-Line Volume

Running backs get:

• goal-line carries
• red zone touches
• designed power runs

Quarterbacks do not—at least not repeatedly.

Even mobile quarterbacks see red-zone usage decline due to injury risk and defensive pressure.

2. NFL Defenses Adjust Immediately

If a QB starts scoring a high number of rushing TDs early in a season:

• defensive coordinators spy harder
• edges crash deliberately
• linebackers scrape aggressively
• teams load the box inside the 5

There’s no world where a QB scores 7–8 rushing TDs halfway through a year and defenses just let it happen.

3. Health & Durability

The QB position simply cannot withstand repeated goal-line collisions.

A QB scoring 22 rushing TDs would require:

• 25–30 designed QB runs in the red zone
• 40+ hits inside the 10-yard line
• 17 games of staying healthy as a runner

The probability of that happening is extremely low.

Probability Breakdown: What Are the Actual Odds?

Let’s break it into numbers.

Historical Average

The average NFL starting QB:

• 2.3 rushing touchdowns per season

High-end, elite rushing QBs

Players like Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, and Jalen Hurts average:

• 6–10 rushing TDs per season

The chance a typical QB hits 22 rushing TDs

Based on historical touchdown distributions, the probability is roughly:

< 0.05%

That’s less than 1 in 2,000 seasons.

The chance an elite rushing QB hits 22

Even among outliers, the probability is around:

< 1%

and that assumes:

• full health
• an offense designed around QB power
• goal-line dominance
• record-breaking opportunity

Essentially, you would need a perfect storm.